Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 32.558001 34.922058 37.486907 40.497500 43.962559 47.861000 52.630374
2025-10-05 29.985504 33.289138 37.109079 41.932467 47.983707 55.508576 65.901571
2025-10-12 28.303429 32.106268 36.686784 42.762563 50.870034 61.757757 78.409790
2025-10-19 26.883283 30.996815 36.109872 43.164003 53.074227 67.318309 91.334315
2025-10-26 25.592234 29.883760 35.351537 43.138756 54.561756 71.993462 104.234731
2025-11-02 24.255327 28.585336 34.203632 42.399439 54.832100 74.747674 114.658594
2025-11-09 23.044950 27.358849 33.038577 41.487556 54.668327 76.686081 124.175706
2025-11-16 22.062901 26.368631 32.114061 40.817804 54.762575 79.034943 135.546182
2025-11-23 21.198104 25.483497 31.269558 40.178282 54.801293 81.254532 147.701451
2025-11-30 20.899720 25.345934 31.456969 41.103563 57.552379 89.243460 180.303014
2025-12-07 20.282430 24.731921 30.916139 40.834625 58.172844 93.038602 203.753236
2025-12-14 19.536800 23.904299 30.017372 39.921312 57.514321 93.911478 217.970382
2025-12-21 18.810203 23.092109 29.126731 39.001463 56.825974 94.785765 234.448016
2025-12-28 18.715834 23.170973 29.560693 40.289098 60.491788 107.084492 324.352563
2026-01-04 18.498018 23.057899 29.691769 41.070369 63.286234 118.349762 451.297537
2026-01-11 18.197331 22.808415 29.595090 41.442908 65.294569 128.337454 636.214248
2026-01-18 17.827241 22.440236 29.291441 41.419585 66.446013 136.276353 899.618496
2026-01-25 17.334734 21.872368 28.645880 40.731116 66.024363 138.899176 1134.420385
2026-02-01 16.835471 21.278836 27.935878 39.881102 65.141142 139.683279 1379.076113
2026-02-08 16.410876 20.784581 27.365885 39.256164 64.716754 142.105718 1869.633709
2026-02-15 16.014205 20.320828 26.827627 38.658937 64.295513 144.483370 2738.406593
2026-02-22 15.936311 20.334681 27.059910 39.522867 67.511190 163.328796 NaN
2026-03-01 15.641509 20.008553 26.722060 39.271866 67.929387 170.487436 NaN